We’re now one week into the NFL Playoffs. The weekend began with the Texans hosting the Chargers, the game with the highest ticket count of the week’s NFL slate, and 78% of the bets were on Los Angeles. The Texans, though, had something to say about that, winning 32-12.
“Winning that first game really set the stage and laid the groundwork for the weekend. Not only having that Texans cover but win the game outright was best case scenario for us,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Race and Sports Book Director.
“It knocked down every moneyline, parlay and teasers. It forced guests to have to reset and start the process all over. It was by far the biggest game of the weekend. And then we were able to bookend it with the Rams winning, a game we never really had to sweat. Most of the games stayed under, so a really great start for our side.”
With all that in mind, let’s quickly review the past week in sports and peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports app and the STN Sports Books…
Texans/Chiefs
Kansas City begins its quest for the first-ever three-peat on Saturday against the Texans, and the Chiefs are favorites of over a touchdown.
“You got a Texans team that wasn’t great down the stretch, but they did play really well against the Chargers last week,” Esposito said. “They lost a lot offensively, but defensively, they’re good.” The Chiefs, who it feels like haven’t played a game in a month, are winning ugly this season — but they’re winning. Kansas City is 8-9 against the spread this year but has a 15-2 win-loss record. The Chiefs are kind of like a toilet plunger: it gets the job done, but it’s not a pretty sight in action.
“My guest is well be huge Houston fans,” Esposito said before lamenting having to be on the opposite side of Mahomes. “It’s hard when they’ve got a certain guy playing quarterback that it doesn’t matter how hot or cold he is; he just finds a way in the postseason.”
Commanders/Lions
The NFC road to the Super Bowl goes through Detroit, and the Commanders are the first to take on the challenge. The top-seeded Lions are obvious favorites on Saturday evening, and the spread will likely rise. Historically, the public loves betting on teams coming off a bye, and Detroit qualifies. For oddsmakers, they’re gonna have their work cut out for them. The Lions promise to attract more attention than Carrie Underwood’s inauguration National Anthem.
“This is a Lions team that defies logic because they go for it on fourth down all the time. They don’t take their foot off the gas ever. They’ve got a coach who wants to just keep it going,” Esposito said. “Jayden Daniels is great and this isn’t a slight on him, but he still is a rookie playing in Detroit. He’s got to play almost a perfect game for them to stay within the [spread]. Detroit looks to be on a mission.”
The Lions, for what it’s worth, are the only team in the NFC that has never appeared in a Super Bowl.
Rams/Eagles
On Monday night, the Los Angeles Rams lifted a city ravaged by fire. Can they do it again after traveling across the country to face the Philadelphia Eagles?
“I love that Rams this week, but I worry a bit,” Esposito said. “Sometimes when something bad happens, you rise up, but after, it sinks in. They get back home and see what their city looks like. They have families to take care of, and they might not be able to practice because of air quality. They may have to turn around and fly all the way to the East Coast. There’s definitely some distractions there, which might hurt.”
Although the game moved to Arizona due to the fires, the Rams looked dominant in that neutral site. The Eagles, meanwhile, come off a game in which they throttled an overachieving Packers team. One STN guest was so confident in a Philly win that a $480,000 moneyline bet was made on the Eagles. The bet, which hit, paid $200,000. Still, L.A. might have the best coach in the NFC, and coaching is paramount in the postseason.
Said Esposito, “I think the Rams are a live dog. I could see this game being bet up, even though I personally like the Rams.”
Ravens/Bills
The Bills opened as small favorites against the Ravens, but a flood of Ravens money has come in, dropping the line closer to a pick ‘em.
These two played earlier in the season in Baltimore, and the Ravens won easily. This time, Baltimore will have to travel to Buffalo’s Highmark Stadium, one of the league’s toughest venues for visiting teams. The handle for this game is expected to lead the weekend, as it’s the last game of the divisional round and arguably the most interesting game.
“Josh Allen has been on a mission all year, and Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry have been red hot, so this is going to be a great matchup,” Esposito said. “Both quarterbacks are looking for that defining playoff win.” The game stands to offer more drama than a Dallas Cowboys head coach search. Interestingly enough, the Bills have never been a home underdog in the playoffs, but that could change if the line keeps ticking down toward the Ravens.
“Personally, I like Buffalo a little bit, but I think we’re going to need Buffalo,” the STN oddsmaker said.
National Championship
The weekend of NFL games will be capped off with the National Championship between Ohio State and Notre Dame. “This is a bit like a prize fight,” Esposito said. “You have to give Notre Dame a puncher’s chance because they can punch you in the mouth with a running game, and they can definitely play defense.” Ohio State will enter the game as a favorite of over a touchdown, but that spread has come down.
“Just because of the value and the price, I think you’re going to see a lot of Notre Dame action. It’s not going to be just one-sided,” Esposito said. “I really give Notre Dame a shot. They can come into this game loose, and they can run and play some defense. I think that the number’s really, really big.”
Bets To Know
All eyes are on the natty. The standalone game Monday night means there will be tons of props and menu options on the board. Check the app as we approach kickoff.
Weekly Winners
An STN Sports bettor has started their playoff run on the right foot. This 6-teamer for $1,000 hit for $19,676 over the weekend:
-Chargers over 42 -110
-Ravens -525
-Bills -9 -110
-Eagles -265
-Bucs under 50.5 -110
-Rams under 48 -110