A Titan-sized upset crushed bettors, and a Commanding loss did more of the same in Week 12. Welcome to crunch time in the NFL! “Everybody was backing Washington with how poorly the Cowboys have played, and the Texans losing to the Titans was really big for us,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos Race and Sports Book Director.
In the afternoon, however, things changed faster than an F1 car’s top speed, as guests bested the Books with the Broncos, Packers and Eagles. Of course, that all leads us to the three Thanksgiving games and Black Friday game, all of which might cause the Sports Book more stomachaches than an undercooked Turkey-day bird.
As we like to say, you can’t spell Thanksgiving without STN! With all that in mind, let’s quickly peek at what’s ahead on the STN Sports app and the STN Sports Books…
Bears at Lions
Those Macy’s Parade floats might be less inflated than some of the Thanksgiving day football spreads. As per tradition, the Detroit Lions will kick off the holiday slate of games, as they play host to the Chicago Bears. Detroit, who’s 9-2 against the spread and arguably the best team in the NFL, enters the game as a double-digit favorite.
Dan Campbell and Jared Goff are 0-3 on Turkey Day, and Detroit hasn’t been this large of a Thanksgiving favorite since 1968. However, Turkey Day favorites of over 10 pts are 9-0 ATS since 2005.
“We did see some sharp money on the Bears, but my guess is we’re going to be clear Bear fans by kickoff,” Esposito said. Despite having a coach who’s likely to be canned like cranberry sauce, Chicago has played two good games in a row but without a win to show for it. Last year, these teams split the series, with Chicago handing Detroit one its worst losses of the season.
“I really think that this first game will kind of set the stage and make or break our day,” Esposito added. “We hope we can chop everything else up that day. If the Bears get crushed and it goes over, which it very well may, we’re going to be behind the eight ball in the next two games.”
Giants at Cowboys
In the matchup that we all obviously expected, it’ll be Tommy “Cutlets” DeVito vs. Brandon Rush in the second game of the day. Two teams with a combined six wins. The Giants started the season fairly competitively, and save for a couple of plays, they could have been 4-1. But the wheels have fallen off; they waived their $160M quarterback, there are calls for a total team overhaul and they’re getting dismantled like a Las Vegas Grand Prix track.
Conversely, the Cowboys won a wild one against the Commanders last week, but they aren’t scaring anyone, especially with a backup quarterback. Dating back to 2011, the ‘Boys are 2-11 ATS in their past 13 Thanksgiving games.
“We’re going to be huge Giants fans. [Cowboys coach] Mike McCarthy is playing for his job, and the Giants want the first pick in the draft. You can make a case that they might be the worst team in the league now,” Esposito said.
“I really think that line is going to go up. The Cowboys are 0-5 at home, but this is a chance for them to save face and win a Thanksgiving game after just coming off a huge win in Washington.”
Dolphins at Packers
The high temperature at Lambeau Field will likely be below freezing on Thursday night, so it’s fitting that the Miami Dolphins came to town to take on the Green Bay Packers. ‘Fins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, a Hawaii native, is 0–7 in cold weather games, but Miami is hot right now, having won three in a row. The Packers, meanwhile, like things colder than an Aria slot machine.
“Both teams are good. I think it’s a much bigger game for the Dolphins to try to get themselves back in the wild card race,” Esposito said, noting that he foresees a crush of Packers money. The Packers have been a wilder ride than a bull at the National Finals Rodeo. Over their last two games, they probably should have lost to the Bears, and they beat the 49ers with a third-string quarterback. Of their eight wins, three have come by a combined six points. Still, the Pack could roll.
“If it’s chalky on Thanksgiving, Black Friday might be really, really red for the Sports Books.”
Raiders at Chiefs
The Black and Silver might end up black and blue on Friday. The Chiefs host the Raiders, and needless to say, Kansas City is a huge favorite — nearly two touchdowns. Although the Raiders are abysmal and the Chiefs have more skin in the game than the Chippendales, Kansas City hasn’t been blowing the doors off of teams (They have a 5-6 ATS record and barely squeaked by Carolina on Sunday.)
“The Chiefs just find a way to win, and that’s the mark of a great team,” Esposito said. “The Raiders and Chiefs have played very competitively over the last two years, but we don’t know who’ll be playing quarterback.” On Sunday, possibly Black Friday starter Desmond Ritter played about a quarter and had the worst quarterback rating in the league. Plus, their defense can’t stop a nosebleed. The Raiders have a 4-7 ATS record, but they’re hitting more overs than a high jumper with an 8-3 record.
Said Esposito, “Even though they’re our local team, I think the bettors have clearly jumped off that ship because they rode the Broncos hard on Sunday, and my guess is they’re going to be riding the Chiefs again on Black Friday.”
Bets To Know
Place a bet mid-feast! In-game betting is a great option if you want to place a bet in the middle of your Thanksgiving holiday, even after the game kicks off.
Weekly Winners
A $20 parlay collects $950.92 on Sunday for this pro football bettor. Congrats!
-Bears/Vikings over 39 -110
-Lions -7 -120
-Dolphins -7.5 -105
-Commanders/Cowboys over 44.5 -110
-Bucs -6 -110
-Packers -6 -110