The two weeks between the conference champions and Super Bowl always feels longer than a Kyrie Irving grievance list. But, the big game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles is finally here, and the Station Casinos Race & Sports Books are already seeing feverish action, particularly on the Birds. The overwhelming ticket count on the Eagles has caused the line to move up a tick.
“You can make a serious case for both these teams, but the action has really been one-sided,” said Chuck Esposito, Station Casinos’ Race and Sports Book Director. It seems that everyone in the world is taking a side, with the exception of a Kelce mother.
With all that in mind, let’s quickly look back over the sports landscape and dish out some insight on what’s ahead in the big game and on the STN Sports App and at the Station Casinos Race and Sports Books.
Follow The Money!
There’s no mystery as to who the public is backing so far: It’s the Eagles, and by a mile. Over 74% of the tickets bet so far have been punched for Philly, as bettors are clearly impressed by the team’s playoff run, in which they’ve left squads more beaten and battered than an IHOP breakfast.
“I really expected to see some KC money start to show, but ticket counts just really favor of Philly at this point,” Esposito said. “We’re in a really good position in the future book on both teams.” Last year was a different case.
Had the Bengals won Super Bowl LVI, the Book would have taken a seven-figure loss, as they started the 21-22 season with long Super Bowl odds. Interestingly, the Eagles weren’t exactly considered a threat early on in this season either, as they opened at 30-to-1 Super Bowl odds. However, with the addition of A.J. Brown and a few impressive wins, that number shot down faster than a Chinese spy balloon. “The fact that we were in such good shape, it shows you there wasn’t a whole lot of tickets on them early in the season,” Esposito added.
Completely Totaled
After four years in a row of the Super Bowl total going under, bettors are thinking the tide will turn this year. The number ticked down a smidge after it was initially posted, but it has seen gone up more drastically than Lebron James’ hairline. And, it’s widely expected that more money will come in on the over.
“It’s fairly good two-way action right now, but I think you’re going to see more over money as we get closer to Sunday,” Esposito said. Although bettors cashed on the under the last four years of the big game, the over cashed on five of six years from 2013 to 2018.
MVP Voting
Long-shot MVP bets are always going to be unlikely to cash — that’s why they’re long shots! — but that doesn’t mean there’s no liability when the Book takes them. Going into the game, Station Books have some MVP liability on Eagles linebacker Haason Reddick and Kansas City Chiefs backup quarterback Chad Henne. Wait, the BACKUP quarterback? That’s less likely to happen than the All Net Arena.
“In the event somehow Patrick Mahomes was to get hurt early on and Henne comes in, that’s a pretty juicy price,” Esposito said of the Henne rationale. And although Travis Kelce is expected to be a big factor in the game, especially if the Chiefs prevail, he’s unlikely to win the MVP. In fact, a tight end has never won Super Bowl MVP.
The logic is simple: the tight end has to catch the ball from the quarterback, and the MVP is most definitely a QB award, which is evidenced by the fact that Mahomes and Jalen Hurts have the shortest odds this Sunday. And, oh yeah, 11 of the past 16 MVPs have been QBs. Still, that hasn’t stopped bets on Kelce, as he’s currently the MVP ticket leader.
Based on the way Philly plays, Esposito actually sees value on the Eagles running backs for MVP. Miles Sanders has the fifth-shortest odds. Just saying.
Freebie
Of all the prop bets available, Esposito sees value on the Jalen Hurts rushing yards bet. Will be have over or under 50.5 rushing yards? Station’ stop oddsmaker thinks the over is the smart play.
“They design so many plays for him, and if he’s able to step up in the pocket a bit I think he can create some havoc,” Esposito said. “I think he surpasses the total just because of the designed running plays that they’ll have for him.”
Prediction
So, who you got? After four quarters of football and enough build-up to make a dentist squirm, Esposito predicts the Chiefs will prevail in a come-from-behind fashion, and it has to do with coaching. When he has to two to prepare for a team, Chiefs Coach Andy Reid is more automatic than a State of the Union standing ovation. His record after a bye week is 27-4, and that’s something Esposito can’t overlook.
“I’m happy to root for whoever we need, but I’m gonna say it’s Andy Reid on two weeks. I’m gonna say it again, it’s Andy Reid on two weeks. Let me stress, it’s Andy Reid on two weeks,” Esposito says.
“I think Mahomes gets his second Super Bowl ring in a very close game. I think they actually trail in the fourth quarter and the Chiefs come back to win the game.”
Bets To Know
When it comes to the Super Bowl, Station Casinos Sports Books has more props than a Smith Center theater. While the majority of Super Bowl betting is certainly on the teams and the total, you could argue that the most fun wagers are the prop bets. There are over 500 ways to bet Super Bowl LVII at Station, starting with the coin toss and bookending the game with “Will the last play of the game be a kneel down?”
Within the 24-page Super Bowl packet available at all Station Books, guests can find wagers on specific players, penalties, or even punts — you know, the PPP, but without all the fraud. There’s also a trove of cross sport bets, and there’s even a Super Bowl bet tied to the Power Slap Championship (Noted Eagles fan Will Smith is not competing).
Weekly Winners
Low risk, high reward! Congrats to this bettor who risked $2 on a college basketball parlay on February 4 for a $1,600 payday!
- – DUKE -3
- – MISS ST -3
- – XAVIER -9
- – SYRACUSE -4
- – TEXAS -1
- – LSU +12
- – INDIANA U -1
- – IND ST -7
- – SO CARO +13
- – MIAMI FL +2